Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.788513 21.538404 23.474493 25.796138 28.532876 31.693463 35.676207
2024-10-20 16.942324 19.182741 21.841654 25.300212 29.793709 35.614122 44.065856
2024-10-27 15.677214 18.339033 21.692304 26.386509 33.088944 42.892466 59.745292
2024-11-03 14.279101 17.076629 20.749571 26.173300 34.503251 47.994640 75.205362
2024-11-10 13.293546 16.192941 20.135230 26.236616 36.261591 54.232685 97.627049
2024-11-17 12.539894 15.516155 19.687428 26.420259 38.205558 61.609654 131.253636
2024-11-24 11.902377 14.923009 19.267373 26.543424 40.041535 69.696720 182.171439
2024-12-01 11.269085 14.271478 18.676279 26.271273 41.046668 76.506737 249.880458
2024-12-08 10.787735 13.796037 18.296586 26.286738 42.618041 85.853799 386.177211
2024-12-15 10.311010 13.288390 17.812446 26.036921 43.557347 94.198440 627.194541
2024-12-22 9.884582 12.825206 17.355159 25.767424 44.385956 103.049569 1214.391763
2024-12-29 9.513287 12.420961 16.957837 25.554330 45.300743 113.327698 4016.610950
2025-01-05 9.177314 12.056568 16.606568 25.404730 46.406994 126.277945 NaN
2025-01-12 8.795183 11.599859 16.068019 24.821705 46.254508 133.603468 NaN
2025-01-19 8.704959 11.595387 16.296335 25.824537 50.798009 175.723611 NaN
2025-01-26 8.429471 11.279549 15.959267 25.597070 51.709405 197.795145 NaN
2025-02-02 8.216356 11.052832 15.762599 25.648048 53.536756 234.809489 NaN
2025-02-09 8.035704 10.869112 15.628701 25.820164 55.861154 290.458038 NaN
2025-02-16 7.859785 10.684028 15.478690 25.936517 58.078546 365.024405 NaN
2025-02-23 7.646448 10.427237 15.180507 25.673782 58.840066 428.062360 NaN
2025-03-02 7.481467 10.243875 15.007260 25.688222 60.722685 553.487548 NaN
2025-03-09 7.295558 10.017694 14.740472 25.447691 61.521432 679.891420 NaN
2025-03-16 7.118200 9.799251 14.476651 25.188271 62.187481 847.695650 NaN